Full Text:   <1352>

CLC number: TU991.31

On-line Access: 

Received: 2003-06-19

Revision Accepted: 2004-01-09

Crosschecked: 0000-00-00

Cited: 9

Clicked: 7655

Citations:  Bibtex RefMan EndNote GB/T7714

-   Go to

Article info.
Open peer comments

Journal of Zhejiang University SCIENCE A 2004 Vol.5 No.9 P.1053~1059

http://doi.org/10.1631/jzus.2004.1053


Chaotic phenomenon and the maximum predictable time scale of observation series of urban hourly water consumption


Author(s):  LIU Jing-qing, ZHANG Tu-qiao, YU Shen-kai

Affiliation(s):  Department of Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China; more

Corresponding email(s):   LJQ@civil.zju.edu.cn

Key Words:  Hourly water consumption series, Lyapunov exponent, Chaos, Maximum predictable time scale


Share this article to: More

LIU Jing-qing, ZHANG Tu-qiao, YU Shen-kai. Chaotic phenomenon and the maximum predictable time scale of observation series of urban hourly water consumption[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University Science A, 2004, 5(9): 1053~1059.

@article{title="Chaotic phenomenon and the maximum predictable time scale of observation series of urban hourly water consumption",
author="LIU Jing-qing, ZHANG Tu-qiao, YU Shen-kai",
journal="Journal of Zhejiang University Science A",
volume="5",
number="9",
pages="1053~1059",
year="2004",
publisher="Zhejiang University Press & Springer",
doi="10.1631/jzus.2004.1053"
}

%0 Journal Article
%T Chaotic phenomenon and the maximum predictable time scale of observation series of urban hourly water consumption
%A LIU Jing-qing
%A ZHANG Tu-qiao
%A YU Shen-kai
%J Journal of Zhejiang University SCIENCE A
%V 5
%N 9
%P 1053~1059
%@ 1869-1951
%D 2004
%I Zhejiang University Press & Springer
%DOI 10.1631/jzus.2004.1053

TY - JOUR
T1 - Chaotic phenomenon and the maximum predictable time scale of observation series of urban hourly water consumption
A1 - LIU Jing-qing
A1 - ZHANG Tu-qiao
A1 - YU Shen-kai
J0 - Journal of Zhejiang University Science A
VL - 5
IS - 9
SP - 1053
EP - 1059
%@ 1869-1951
Y1 - 2004
PB - Zhejiang University Press & Springer
ER -
DOI - 10.1631/jzus.2004.1053


Abstract: 
The chaotic characteristics and maximum predictable time scale of the observation series of hourly water consumption in Hangzhou were investigated using the advanced algorithm presented here is based on the conventional Wolf’s algorithm for the largest lyapunov exponent. For comparison, the largest lyapunov exponents of water consumption series with one-hour and 24-hour intervals were calculated respectively. The results indicated that chaotic characteristics obviously exist in the hourly water consumption system; and that observation series with 24-hour interval have longer maximum predictable scale than hourly series. These findings could have significant practical application for better prediction of urban hourly water consumption.

Darkslateblue:Affiliate; Royal Blue:Author; Turquoise:Article

Reference

[1] Han, F., 2001. Chaos in mine discharge and its maximum predictable time scale. Journal of China Coal Society, 26(5):520-524 (in Chinese with English abstract).

[2] Huang, R.S., 2000. Chaos and Its Application. Wuhan University Press, Wuhan, p.115-135 (in Chinese).

[3] Li, T.Y., Liu, Z.F., 2000. The chaotic property of power load and its forecasting. Proceedings of CSEE, 20(11):36-40 (in Chinese with English abstract).

[4] Lü, M., Zhao, H.B., Li, H.W., Wang, C.M., 1998. Dynamic adaptive combined forecasting algorithm of water consumption. Systems Engineering(Theory & Practice, 17(8):101-102 (in Chinese with English abstract).

[5] Packard, N.H., Cratchfield, J.P., Farmer, J.D., 1980. Geometry from a time series. Phys. Rev. Lett., 45:712-716.

[6] Takens, F., 1981. Detecting strange attractor in turbulence. Lecture Notes in Math., 898:366-381.

[7] Tsonis, A.A., Elsner, J.B., 1988. The weather attractor over very short time scales. Nature, 333:1033-1043.

[8] Wang, D.S., Chao, L., 1995. Chaos, Fractals and Its Application. Press of University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, p.93-155 (in Chinese).

[9] Wang, S.Y., Liu, G.H., Du, W.G., Shi, J.Y., 1999. Chaotic phenomenon in observation data of dam monitoring. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, (7):22-26 (in Chinese with English abstract).

[10] Wolf, A., 1985. Determining Lyapunov exponents from a time series. Physica., 16D(3):285-317.

[11] Yang, F., Zhang, H.W., Liu, H.B., 2002. A research on forecasting approach of short term municipal water consumption. Journal of Tianjin University, 35(2):167-170 (in Chinese with English abstract).

[12] Zhou, S.L., Mcmahon, T.A., Walton, A., Lewis, J., 2002. Forecasting operational demand for an urban water supply zone. Journal of Hydrology, 259:189-202.

Open peer comments: Debate/Discuss/Question/Opinion

<1>

Please provide your name, email address and a comment





Journal of Zhejiang University-SCIENCE, 38 Zheda Road, Hangzhou 310027, China
Tel: +86-571-87952783; E-mail: cjzhang@zju.edu.cn
Copyright © 2000 - Journal of Zhejiang University-SCIENCE