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CLC number: TV125

On-line Access: 2015-03-04

Received: 2014-05-05

Revision Accepted: 2014-10-07

Crosschecked: 2015-02-10

Cited: 2

Clicked: 2211

Citations:  Bibtex RefMan EndNote GB/T7714


Yue-ping Xu


Qian Zhu


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Journal of Zhejiang University SCIENCE A 2015 Vol.16 No.3 P.194-203


Qualitative and quantitative uncertainties in regional rainfall frequency analysis

Author(s):  Qian Zhu, Xiao Xu, Chao Gao, Qi-hua Ran, Yue-ping Xu

Affiliation(s):  Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China

Corresponding email(s):   yuepingxu@zju.edu.cn

Key Words:  Qualitative uncertainty, Uncertainty analysis, Numeral unite spread assessment pedigree (NUSAP) method, Regional rainfall frequency analysis, Pedigree matrix, Diagnostic diagram

Qian Zhu, Xiao Xu, Chao Gao, Qi-hua Ran, Yue-ping Xu. Qualitative and quantitative uncertainties in regional rainfall frequency analysis[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University Science A, 2015, 16(3): 194-203.

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%T Qualitative and quantitative uncertainties in regional rainfall frequency analysis
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%A Chao Gao
%A Qi-hua Ran
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%DOI 10.1631/jzus.A1400123

T1 - Qualitative and quantitative uncertainties in regional rainfall frequency analysis
A1 - Qian Zhu
A1 - Xiao Xu
A1 - Chao Gao
A1 - Qi-hua Ran
A1 - Yue-ping Xu
J0 - Journal of Zhejiang University Science A
VL - 16
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SP - 194
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PB - Zhejiang University Press & Springer
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DOI - 10.1631/jzus.A1400123

Uncertainty exists widely in hydrological analysis, and this makes the process of uncertainty assessment very important for making robust decisions. In this study, uncertainty sources in regional rainfall frequency analysis are identified for the first time. The numeral unite spread assessment pedigree (NUSAP) method is introduced and is first employed to quantify qualitative uncertainty in regional rainfall frequency analysis. A pedigree matrix is particularly designed for regional rainfall frequency analysis, by which the qualitative uncertainty can be quantified. Finally, the qualitative and quantitative uncertainties are combined in an uncertainty diagnostic diagram, which makes the uncertainty evaluation results more intuitive. From the integrated diagnostic diagram, it can be determined that the uncertainty caused by the precipitation data is the smallest, and the uncertainty from different grouping methods is the largest. For the downstream sub-region, a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is better than a generalized logistic (GLO) distribution; for the south sub-region, a Pearson type III (PE3) distribution is the better choice; and for the north sub-region, GEV is more appropriate.

How to take qualitative uncertainty into account is a very difficult task in hydrological analysis. This manuscript identified the key uncertainty sources in regional rainfall frequency analysis, and introduced NUSAP Method to quantify qualitative and quantitative uncertainties simultaneously. Meanwhile, a Pedigree matrix is particularly designed for regional frequency analysis and by which the qualitative uncertainty can be quantified in a reasonable way. Finally, a diagnostic diagram is used to combine the quantitative and qualitative uncertainty. The final results demonstrated the effectiveness of NUSAP Method in evaluating both the quantitative and qualitative uncertainty in regional rainfall frequency analysis. This study presented a novel and useful application of the use of NUSAP Method in regional frequency analysis. Such method is recommended for further use in hydrological analysis and decision making under uncertainty for water management.


方法:1. 选取区域频率分析中三个主要不确定性来源,即降雨测量不确定性、水文分区不确定性和分布线型的不确定性;2. 提出针对区域频率分析的评价依据Pedigree矩阵,量化区域频率分析中的质量不确定性;3. 将质量和数量两类不确定性结合在不确定性诊断图中,综合评估区域频率分析中的质量不确定和数量不确定性。


Darkslateblue:Affiliate; Royal Blue:Author; Turquoise:Article


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