Full Text:   <265>

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CLC number: TH161.12

On-line Access: 2019-07-04

Received: 2019-02-17

Revision Accepted: 2019-05-31

Crosschecked: 2019-06-17

Cited: 0

Clicked: 497

Citations:  Bibtex RefMan EndNote GB/T7714

 ORCID:

Hao Wu

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3925-1726

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Journal of Zhejiang University SCIENCE A 2019 Vol.20 No.7 P.515-532

10.1631/jzus.A1900052


Risk assessment for a floating attitude tension leg platform by application of a hybrid fuzzy-statistical process control model


Author(s):  Hao Wu, Yan Lin

Affiliation(s):  Department of Naval Architecture, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116023, China; more

Corresponding email(s):   wuhao@mail.dlut.edu.cn, linyanly@dlut.edu.cn

Key Words:  Tension leg platform (TLP), Risk assessment, Floating attitude, Hybrid model, Fuzzy-statistical process control (SPC)


Hao Wu, Yan Lin. Risk assessment for a floating attitude tension leg platform by application of a hybrid fuzzy-statistical process control model[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University Science A, 2019, 20(7): 515-532.

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Abstract: 
This paper proposes a risk assessment approach for a tension leg platform (TLP), named hybrid fuzzy-statistical process control (SPC) model, which provides more precise estimation than other commonly used methods. The hybrid fuzzy-SPC model is designed to follow risk source identification and establishment of risk index groups. It has three components: fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and SPC theory. In comparison to applying only one of the three, the hybrid fuzzy-SPC model usually results in reduction in uncertainties and subjectivities. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the AHP are used to obtain several independent risk evaluation scheme results. Then, based on the SPC theory, a practitioner is able to derive a confidence interval using the central limit theorem. This will largely mitigate risks and enable preventive action before a platform loses floating attitude.

This work presents a methodology based on fuzzy, analytic hierarchy process, and statistical process control theories to assess floating attitude risk of TLP. Fuzzy theory and analytic hierarchy processes are general approaches used in project management, especially for risk management. The new ideas of this work are the confidence evaluation and the evaluation risk index group with simply variables. They are interesting, and the work is in worth of attention.

基于模糊统计过程控制模型的张力腿平台漂浮姿态的风险评估

目的:张力腿平台在海上服役时由于振动和系泊问题有漂浮姿态丧失的风险. 平台漂浮姿态丧失后会影响作业稳定性和服役安全性. 本文旨在对平台漂浮姿态丧失进行风险分析,评估总体的风险等级,识别最具威胁的风险因素,提前采取有效措施,并及时向设计、建造和运营提供反馈意见,保证平台运行安全.
创新点:1. 在模糊理论的基础上融合统计过程控制理论和层次分析法,形成模糊统计过程控制评估模型; 2. 建立适用于评估目标的风险评估指标体系,并作为参数输入该风险评估模型,最终获得风险置信区间.
方法:1. 识别影响漂浮姿态的风险因素并归纳分解,建立风险评估指标体系,并将其作为模糊统计过程控制评估模型的输入参数; 2. 将应用模糊理论和层次分析法得到的单一独立评价方案的风险结果视为风险的总体随机样本,并利用中心极限定理对风险评估结果进行置信度评价,以获得最终的风险置信区间.
结论:1. 三种方法的融合使得不确定性和主观性对风险评估的影响大幅减少,结果好于单独用其中任何一种评估方法. 2. 风险评价指标体系是柔性的,需要随着实际情况做出适当的调整. 3. 独立风险评价方案的数量依赖于项目的需求,高精度的评估结果需要大量的独立评价方案做底层支撑; 独立评价方案的数量不能小于10. 4. 风险评价指标体系可以不同,但是风险评估方法具有普适性.

关键词:张力腿平台; 风险评估; 漂浮姿态; 混合模型; 模糊统计过程控制

Darkslateblue:Affiliate; Royal Blue:Author; Turquoise:Article

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