CLC number:
On-line Access: 2021-04-08
Received: 2020-10-02
Revision Accepted: 2020-12-28
Crosschecked: 2021-03-16
Cited: 0
Clicked: 4425
Citations: Bibtex RefMan EndNote GB/T7714
Shijin YUAN, Yong PAN, Yan XIA, Yan ZHANG, Jiangnan CHEN, Wei ZHENG, Xiaoping XU, Xinyou XIE, Jun ZHANG. Development and validation of an individualized nomogram for early prediction of the duration of SARS-CoV-2 shedding in COVID-19 patients with non-severe disease[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University Science B,in press.Frontiers of Information Technology & Electronic Engineering,in press.https://doi.org/10.1631/jzus.B2000608 @article{title="Development and validation of an individualized nomogram for early prediction of the duration of SARS-CoV-2 shedding in COVID-19 patients with non-severe disease", %0 Journal Article TY - JOUR
构建并验证一个可以预测非重症新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)患者病毒脱落(核酸转阴)时长的列线图创新点:本研究根据影响非重症新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)患者病毒核酸转阴时长的因素建立一个模型来预测病毒核酸转阴的概率,从而估计非重症COVID-19患者的隔离时长。 方法:本研究采用多中心回顾性研究方法,选取浙江省四所医院的135例患者作为训练队列和另一家医院的102名患者作为验证队列。在训练队列中,使用多因素Cox回归模型确定与病毒核酸转阴时长相关的重要预测因素,并以此为基础构建一个列线图来预测病毒在第9、13、17和21天转阴的概率。验证队列用于验证列线图,并通过C指数、曲线下面积(AUC)和校准曲线来评估列线图的效能。 结论:训练队列中发现,基线淋巴细胞绝对计数和淋巴单核细胞比值越高,病毒的核酸转阴时长越短;而基线的活化部分凝血酶时间越长,病毒的核酸转阴时长越长。列线图在训练和验证队列中的C指数分别为0.732和0.703。AUC表现出较好的区分度。校准曲线展示了实际结果和预测之间具有较好的一致性。本研究确定了与病毒核酸转阴时长相关的三个因素,并构建一个列线图来预测病毒核酸转阴的概率,这有助于估计每个非重症COVID-19患者的隔离时长,并控制病毒传播。 关键词组: Darkslateblue:Affiliate; Royal Blue:Author; Turquoise:Article
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