JZUS - Journal of Zhejiang University SCIENCE

Journal of Zhejiang University SCIENCE A 2016 Vol.17 No.9 P.677-688

Estimating the time-dependent reliability of aging structures in the presence of incomplete deterioration information

Author(s): Cao Wang, Quan-wang Li, Long Pang, A-ming Zou
Affiliation(s): Department of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; more
Corresponding email(s): wangcao12@tsinghua.org.cn, li_quanwang@tsinghua.edu.cn
Key Words: Time-dependent reliability, Deterioration model, Error quantification, Averaged reliability, Structural safety

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Abstract: The performance of an aging structure is commonly evaluated under the framework of reliability analysis, where the uncertainties associated with the structural resistance and loads should be taken into account. In practical engineering, the probability distribution of resistance deterioration is often inaccessible due to the limits of available data, although the statistical parameters such as mean value and standard deviation can be obtained by fitting or empirical judgments. As a result, an error of structural reliability may be introduced when an arbitrary probabilistic distribution is assumed for the resistance deterioration. With this regard, in this paper, the amount of reliability error posed by different choices of deterioration distribution is investigated, and a novel approach is proposed to evaluate the averaged structural reliability under incomplete deterioration information, which does not rely on the probabilistic weight of the candidate deterioration models. The reliability for an illustrative structure is computed parametrically for varying probabilistic models of deterioration and different resistance conditions, through which the reliability associated with different deterioration models is compared, and the application of the proposed method is illustrated.

The manuscript examines the effect of different probabilistic models (uniform, normal, inverse-lognormal, beta and Gamma distributions) of resistance deterioration on structural time-dependent reliability. Three methods (two methods follow the study of Tang et al. 2015) are adopted to evaluate the structural time-dependent reliability under incomplete probability information. The manuscript is beneficial to structural reliability analysis under incomplete probability information.

非完整衰减信息下的劣化结构时变可靠度评估

目的：研究衰减函数的概率分布对结构可靠度的影响；在非完整衰减信息下，对结构的时变可靠度进行评估。
创新点：1. 假定衰减函数服从5种常见的概率分布，讨论可靠度分析结果的差异；2. 当衰减函数的概率分布（或各概率分布的权重）未知时，提出平均可靠度的分析方法。
方法：假定承载力是完全相关的随机过程，在其概率分布未知的情况下:（1）假定5种常见的概率分布，对结构可靠度进行分析和比较；（2）将时变可靠度的计算公式Taylor展开，转化为关于衰减函数一阶矩和二阶矩的函数，推导平均可靠度的计算方法（公式18）。
结论：1. 不同的衰减函数概率分布对结构可靠度的影响显著；2. 利用本文提出的方法，在衰减函数概率的分布（或各概率分布的权重）未知时，可以得出结构可靠度的合理评估。

关键词：时变可靠度；劣化模型；平均可靠度；误差分析；结构安全

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