Full Text:   <1826>

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CLC number: U44

On-line Access: 2015-07-03

Received: 2015-01-23

Revision Accepted: 2015-04-27

Crosschecked: 2015-06-12

Cited: 6

Clicked: 2710

Citations:  Bibtex RefMan EndNote GB/T7714

 ORCID:

Cao Wang

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2802-1394

Quan-wang Li

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6967-1940

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Journal of Zhejiang University SCIENCE A 2015 Vol.16 No.7 P.513-524

10.1631/jzus.A1500018


A realistic resistance deterioration model for time-dependent reliability analysis of aging bridges


Author(s):  Cao Wang, Quan-wang Li, A-ming Zou, Long Zhang

Affiliation(s):  Department of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Corresponding email(s):   wangcao12@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn, li_quanwang@tsinghua.edu.cn

Key Words:  Time-dependent reliability, Aging bridges, Resistance deterioration, Auto-correlation, Deterioration model


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Cao Wang, Quan-wang Li, A-ming Zou, Long Zhang. A realistic resistance deterioration model for time-dependent reliability analysis of aging bridges[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University Science A, 2015, 16(7): 513-524.

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Abstract: 
Bridge resistance and reliability may deteriorate with time due to aggressive environmental conditions and increasing road freight volumes, resulting in an increase of potential economic loss. This is thus a great concern to decision-makers managing the bridges’ continued future service. Reasonable models of bridge resistance and applied loads are the fundamentals of accurate estimation/prediction of a bridge’s serviceability. In this paper, a new model for resistance deterioration is proposed, which enables the non-increasing property and auto-correlation in the stochastic deterioration process to be incorporated. To facilitate the practical application of the model, methods to determine its parameters using obtained data on structural resistance are developed and illustrated through simple numerical examples. time-dependent reliability analysis is conducted using the proposed resistance deterioration model based on Monte Carlo simulation, and the effect of auto-correlation in the deterioration process on structural time-dependent reliability is investigated.

This paper focuses on proposing a model for strength degradation of bridge structures by ensuring the non-decreasing nature of the deterioration problem (thereby respecting the physics of the problem), and incorporating autocorrelation in the deterioration process. The paper is technically sound, wherein all the equations have been well presented and explained. Additionally the inclusion of the derivations in the appendix is helpful for the detail. The application of the proposed methodology and calibration method using the numerical examples is also commendable.

用于桥梁时变可靠度分析的承载力衰减新模型

目的:提出能够反映劣化桥梁承载力的非增特性以及自相关性的承载力衰减新模型,并利用该模型进行结构可靠度分析。
创新点:提出描述劣化桥梁承载力衰减的新的随机过程模型,给出利用实测数据进行模型参数拟合的方法,并利用提出的衰减模型对劣化桥梁进行时变可靠度分析。
方法:采用Gamma过程描述承载力衰减的随机过程(公式7),并基于Monte Carlo模拟的方法研究承载力衰减过程的自相关性对可靠度结果的影响。如果将承载力衰减过程假定为完全相关的过程,则会低估结构的失效概率。

关键词:时变可靠度;劣化桥梁;衰减模型;自相关性

Darkslateblue:Affiliate; Royal Blue:Author; Turquoise:Article

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