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Yilin SUN


Yinan DONG


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Journal of Zhejiang University SCIENCE A 2023 Vol.24 No.11 P.1003-1016


Correlation between travel experiences and post-COVID outbound tourism intention: a case study from China

Author(s):  Yilin SUN, Yinan DONG, Dianhai WANG, E. Owen D. WAYGOOD, Hamed NASERI, Kazuo NISHII

Affiliation(s):  College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China; more

Corresponding email(s):   dannydong@zju.edu.cn

Key Words:  Outbound tourism, Touring behavior, Travel behavior, COVID-19, Ensemble learner

Yilin SUN, Yinan DONG, Dianhai WANG, E. Owen D. WAYGOOD, Hamed NASERI, Kazuo NISHII. Correlation between travel experiences and post-COVID outbound tourism intention: a case study from China[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University Science A, 2023, 24(11): 1003-1016.

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T1 - Correlation between travel experiences and post-COVID outbound tourism intention: a case study from China
A1 - Yilin SUN
A1 - Yinan DONG
A1 - Dianhai WANG
A1 - E. Owen D. WAYGOOD
A1 - Hamed NASERI
A1 - Kazuo NISHII
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The COVID-19 pandemic has devastated global tourism and recovery is proceeding very slowly. For many countries, tourism served as a major economic sector, so investigating how to recover is essential. As China was the largest source of outbound travelers before the outbreak, study of the factors influencing Chinese intentions to travel overseas in the post-COVID era is revealing. In Apr. 2022, among seven provinces (or cities) with the most outbound tourists from 2019 to 2021, 2450 individuals responded to a questionnaire on daily mobility, tourism experiences, and the shifts due to the pandemic. Light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), a robust ensemble learning method, was adopted to quantify and visualize the impact of explanatory factors on outbound travel intention. In addition, the Optuna mechanism and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) instruments were employed for tuning hyperparameters and interpreting results, respectively. Findings suggest neither one-day nor multi-day tours have resumed to pre-COVID levels. Higher frequency of multi-day tours with further destinations, less car utilization in daily shopping trips, and moderate pandemic restrictions can boost the intention to travel abroad. The concerns and desires of different age groups for overseas travel need different responses. This study reveals the factors affecting Chinese outbound travel intentions and provides suggestions for the recovery of tourism in the post-COVID period.


作者:孙轶琳1,2,3,4,董轶男1,5,王殿海1,2,E. Owen D. WAYGOOD6,Hamed NASERI6,Kazuo NISHII7
机构:1浙江大学,建筑工程学院,中国杭州,310058;2浙江大学建筑设计研究院,中国杭州,310028;3阿里巴巴-浙江大学前沿技术联合研究中心,中国杭州,310058;4浙江大学,工程师学院,中国杭州,310015;5浙江大学平衡建筑研究中心,中国杭州,310028;6蒙特利尔工程学院,土木、岩土和采矿工程系,加拿大蒙特利尔,H3T 1J4;7流通科学大学,政策研究系,日本神户,651-2188


Darkslateblue:Affiliate; Royal Blue:Author; Turquoise:Article


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